Message-ID: <31603537.1075858693435.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Sun, 26 Aug 2001 05:50:36 -0700 (PDT)
From: b..sanders@enron.com
To: d..steffes@enron.com
Subject: FW: Portland General PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
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Can you guys handle this in my absence
 -----Original Message-----
From: 	"Seabron Adamson" <seabron.adamson@frontiereconomics.com>@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Seabron+20Adamson+22+20+3Cseabron+2Eadamson+40frontiereconomics+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Friday, August 24, 2001 6:38 PM
To:	Sanders, Richard B.
Subject:	FW: Portland General PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL


Dan:

(cc Richard Sanders and Gary Fergus)

I have a document by someone named Marty Howard, who I believe may be
associated with Portland General. The document was sent to me by Richard
Tabors. According to the email Howard used to work for McCullough.

After a very brief read through, I think it tries to show that the
statistical link between prices in CA and the PNW was WEAK in peak hours. I
suppose they are trying to show that the "contagion" effect from California
show not be an issue? I have some problems from an initial read with the
econometric analysis, but I have not yet reviewed it fully.

However, it also leaves open the very possibility that was discussed earlier
on the call. If there is a refund, and it is based on some notion of "PNW
prices", it could be a very large one. I think we need to consider this
issue quite carefully.

Seabron


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Seabron Adamson
Frontier Economics Inc
Two Brattle Square
Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
Ph:  (617) 354-0060
Fax: (617) 354-0640
seabron.adamson@frontier-economics.com

www.frontier-economics.com

